Subscription renewal - expiry today - will it really apply the renewal license bought automatically?

Looks fine. This is the normal behaviour of license renewal. 

The License will kick in tomorrow. 

If not, you could start a trial tomorrow. 

Thank you LuCar Toni . your anwer helps me to believe that :-)

Checking it now after the 7h counter from Central has expired shows me:

Still looking dangerous here in Central.

And on the firewall it looks unchanged:

Thank you LuCar Toni . your anwer helps me to believe that :-)

Checking it now after the 7h counter from Central has expired shows me:

Still looking dangerous here in Central.

And on the firewall it looks unchanged:

Yes, as the firewall Subscription is still valid today.

Tomorrow will the new License take over (23.02).

BTW: You can check in the licensing.log in SFOS when the 24h sync timer is set for your firewall. The last reboot time is the sync timer for the firewall and this will be used to sync the license each 24h. 

I checked licensing log yesterday already and it looks not helpful. the only thing that is ever logged since the beginning of the log is always repeating

INFO      Feb 22 06:27:16Z [4148188928]: URL : eu-prod-utm.soa.sophos.com/.../appliance
INFO      Feb 22 06:27:16Z [4148188928]: licensing_do_applianceupdate : request : { "serialNumber": "C420xxxxxVQ0F", "applianceAttributes": [ { "name": "firmwareVersion", "value": "19.5.3.652" }, { "name": "haID", "value": "f0ec8092-9de8-4fff-bdd1-9b1172eec713" }, { "name": "isActive", "value": "false" }, { "name": "haType", "value": "standby" } ] }
INFO      Feb 22 06:27:16Z [4148188928]: response : {"errorCode":"ITSERVICELAYER_CLIENT_AUTHENTICATION_ERROR", "message":"IIS error: HTTP 403.0 - Forbidden", "statusCode": 403}
ERROR     Feb 22 06:27:16Z [4148188928]: Appliance Update Failed : IIS error: HTTP 403.0 - Forbidden
ERROR     Feb 22 06:27:16Z [4148188928]: licensing_do_activation() : parsing failed...
XG430_WP02_SFOS 19.5.3 MR-3-Build652 HA-Primary#

Your Sync is starting at 06.27 UTC+0 in the morning. This is quite early. 
Can you go to the Aux via SSH and check the same? 

yes, the aux as license holder is syncing successfully.

INFO      Feb 22 00:32:34Z [4148483840]: Received these licenses 511
INFO      Feb 22 06:27:14Z [4147951360]: --requestType = 2
INFO      Feb 22 06:27:14Z [4147951360]: --lastCheckCode = 05cbd402-xxxx-xxxx-xxxx-f3e6a5e28769
INFO      Feb 22 06:27:14Z [4147951360]: --cert = /content/licensing/lic_csr.pem
INFO      Feb 22 06:27:14Z [4147951360]: --token = Token-Id:C420xxxK9CF
INFO      Feb 22 06:27:14Z [4147951360]: --key = /content/licensing/lic_csr.key
INFO      Feb 22 06:27:14Z [4147951360]: URL : eu-prod-utm.soa.sophos.com/.../license
INFO      Feb 22 06:27:16Z [4147951360]: license_check : License retrieved...
INFO      Feb 22 06:27:16Z [4147951360]: License response verification successful
INFO      Feb 22 06:27:16Z [4147951360]: device attributes found in response...
INFO      Feb 22 06:27:16Z [4147951360]: Received these licenses 511

LuCar Toni said:

Yes, as the firewall Subscription is still valid today.

Central should take that into account when it displays the validity of the license.

Showing the licenses as expired is not matching with your license policy.

Yes, that is something coming on into the new Central Portal in the future, to reflect the entire subscription. As there are multi line items, it is hard to reflect the true up in the first place. 

LHerzog  Did the license took over? 

thanks for asking!

no, not really

on the license holder:

and on the primary (not lic holder):

Can you PM me the Support-Access ID? 

 LuCar Toni fixed it on the backend! Thank you very much!

cases for reference: 07241308, 07238072